Agile Planning Poker Estimation Techniques

Planning Poker is an Agile estimation technique used worldwide by Agile teams. It is also famously called the Scrum Poker and is one of the most popular estimation techniques advocated by Agile companies and institutes because of its effectiveness. Key features of the Agile Planning Poker technique are:

• It is consensus-based.
• It contains game-based design elements to make the process exciting and compelling. 
• It makes use of cards numbered in a sequence during the estimation stage. 
• Intense discussions back up the entire estimation exercise.
• The concept is based on relative sizing
• The estimating history influences the technique 

Learn more about : What is Planning Poker in Agile?

The need for Planning Poker estimation

Estimating time and the effort required to complete the Product Backlog is a critical and integral part of software development. However, most software development teams find defining and estimating the required work challenging. Regardless of team size, this is one task that they need to do with optimal effectiveness. The work becomes way too daunting with bigger teams and more team members. 

Estimation is a critical element of the software development process and needs to be done professionally, following good habits and set standards. The result of the entire project depends on the proper planning and estimation of the work at hand.

The Planning Poker technique’s essence has been proven time and again. In one specific study, few individual software professionals from a software development company were asked to estimate the time required to develop software. All of these participants in the study were from varied backgrounds and had different roles to play in the software development project. They were then distributed in other groups, each assigned one item for estimation. They needed to discuss and exchange their opinions before the final estimate. The results derived from the group discussion were far more effective and accurate than the estimates given by the individuals. 

What is the Planning Poker estimation technique?

The Product Backlog items are estimated using this technique. The typical process takes place in four distinct steps:

• The Product Owner or the customer reads a user story or backlog item.
• The team members present estimates using the Poker Planning method. 
• Discussion happens.
• Rounds of estimations happen till a consensus amongst team members is reached.

The technique is the brainchild of James Grenning, who defined it in 2002. Later, Mike Cohn discussed the method in his book Agile Estimating and Planning. Mike’s company later trademarked the term ‘Poker Planning’. 

This quintessence of the technique lies in the fact that it requires participation from everyone in the room and compels an open discussion. Team members need to think freely and reveal their cards together. Also, a consensus is an integral part of the technique.

Participants in the Planning Poker estimation technique

The key participants include the product Owner, Scrum Master, and Developers.

Planning Poker estimation cards

The Poker Planning cards contain Fibonacci values of 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, and 100. The Fibonacci sequence was introduced in the 13th century and consisted of a series of numbers starting with 0 and 1. The next number is calculated as the sum of the last two numbers; so, the third number is 1, the fourth number is 2, and so on and so forth. The initial numbers in the series are 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, etc.

Fig: Planning Poker cards

Interpretation of the numbers on the Planning Poker cards

The game of Planning Poker estimation

1. Starting the session

• To begin the session, the customer or the Product Owner reads out the Agile User Story or an item from the Product Backlog. Typically, a Product Backlog contains User Stories, Acceptance criteria, story points, and User Story tasks.
• The Scrum Master coaches the team in implementing the session. The Scrum Master also needs to observe individual team members, interpret their body language, and encourage them to participate. 
• Each member is handed a set of the Planning Poker cards. There needs to be a good number of card sets, and the cards should be large so that when they are picked up and displayed, they are visible to all team members. 
• The estimates need to be generated collaboratively and simultaneously. 
• One of the team members needs to be the moderator. 

2. During the session

Team members proceed with estimation. They use the numbered cards, as shown in the picture above, and keep the cards face-down on the table in front. At this stage, no one is allowed to show the card chosen. 

3. After the estimation

• Now, the cards are concurrently displayed by all the team members. 
• If the numbers displayed by all team members are the same, it becomes the estimate.
• If not, there will be a discussion regarding the estimates. Every team member will be asked the reasoning behind their estimates. 
• The discussions continue, and the entire Planning Poker estimation is repeated multiple times to reach a consensus among team members. 

Is the Planning Poker estimation technique effective?

Data says that the Planning Poker technique is helpful if done the recommended way. Most Agile teams worldwide have reported impressive results with this technique. Even though it is a relative estimation technique, the results are prone to be accurate. Of all the Agile estimation techniques, this is one of the most effective methods for optimizing estimation. The technique’s tremendous positivity is because every team member, all thoroughly experienced, gets the chance to express their opinions. The good part is that members from cross-functional teams participate, giving an all-around view of the user stories and reasons behind giving a specific estimation. As Magne Jorgensen from the Simula Research Lab summarized, the logic behind the technique is that proficient people in doing the tasks should be competent in estimating the same.

What are the relevant rules of the Planning Poker game?

1. The Product Owner (PO) decides which Product Backlog item needs to be selected and reads it out to team members.
2. The developers in the session need to discuss openly and clarify their queries by the PO.
3. The PO and the Scrum Master should always be ready to clarify doubts and answer queries.
4. When the estimation technique session is on, each member must be secretive when picking a card.
5. Only when every team member does the estimations do they need to reveal the cards. Everyone has to see the cards being displayed by the other. Everyone must see the card. 
6. If everyone in the room selects the same card, there is consensus. However, if team members pick different cards, there needs to be a detailed discussion of them. Justification or reasoning is an essential step in the entire process.
7. If there are some high and low estimates, then the high-low estimators need to justify.
8. This series of steps go to the point a consensus or agreement is reached between the team members.  
9. The PO and the SM are responsible for not taking the estimates or discussions personally.
10. The moderator selected should take notes when the discussion regarding the justification happens. 

Which three methods are involved in Planning Poker estimation? 

This method is a combination of three varied estimation methods. 

• The Analogy estimation is where the User Stories need to be compared. It is where the present User Stories are compared with past User Stories. The estimation technique is primarily based on previous proven data.
• An expert Opinion is an estimation approach in which the expert expresses how much time the User Story will take. Experts base their opinions on their experience or gut feeling. It is quite accurate compared to a few other analytical methods.
• Disaggregation estimation is where a User Story is split into smaller User Stories. 

Conclusion

The Planning Poker estimation is about relative analysis. So, team members who participate in the session use their knowledge and experience to make a well-educated guess. They compare the item on hand with earlier finished work and use this know-how to estimate or guess the time required to complete a similar task. The technique is based on the assumption that human beings are good at relative sizing or estimation. We are not good at absolute estimation, though.
Also, estimators are required to justify their estimates. This gives everyone around the table a chance to validate their selection and point. Simpliaxis offers Agile courses to help you master Planning Poker and other essential Agile practices.